ABRUPT EARTH CHANGES

32 million American Christians (who go to church regularly) might not vote in the Presidential election 2024

More than half of the non-voters claim to not vote because their vote doesn’t matter or because they think the election will be rigged anyways. However, if Trump receives an extra 30 million votes, the election would be “too big to rig”.

As the final weeks of the 2024 presidential election campaign unfold, it appears that the outcome of the close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will depend on which candidate does a more effective job of getting their supporters to vote. A new national survey by the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, led by Dr. George Barna, indicates that voting enthusiasm is significantly lower than in 2020, and that a massive number of Christians who regularly attend church services are not likely to vote in November.

Christian churchgoing voters have historically supported the more conservative major-party candidate in a presidential race and appear poised to do so again this election cycle—albeit with fewer of them casting a ballot than in the most recent presidential race.

The research indicates that as many as 104 million people of faith are unlikely to vote in this upcoming election—and among those, 32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church won’t cast their ballots.

If that expectation holds true, the impact bodes more poorly for President Trump’s prospects for re- election than for Mrs. Harris’s effort to succeed Joe Biden.

The surveys also revealed that large numbers of Christian churches have distanced themselves from the election, refusing to even encourage congregants to vote and avoiding teaching related to many of the key social issues that will determine which candidates people will support.

Estimating Who Will—and Will Not—Vote

The research by the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University (CRC) indicates that enthusiasm for this election is lower than usual, and certainly lower than in 2020. A primary reason for that diminished interest is the public’s distaste for both major-party candidates (Donald Trump, Kamala Harris).

Other significant reasons for the heightened disinterest include the aging out of Boomers and Elders (two generations that were highly involved in past elections) alongside the emergence of the less politically energized Millennials and Gen Z; public dissatisfaction with the quality of government, in general; and the widespread expectation that the results of the election will be manipulated by illegal, behind-the-scenes activities and voting by illegal immigrants.

Historical data indicates that turnout among the voting age population was about 54% in 2012 (Obama-Romney); 55% in 2016 (Trump-Clinton); and 61% in 2020 (Trump-Biden).

If the election had been held at the time of the survey, which was conducted approximately seven weeks prior to the election, the turnout would have been 50% of voting-age adults. Interest in voting usually rises slightly between Labor Day and Election Day, causing CRC researchers to project the November 5 turnout in the 53% to 55% range. That would put the 2024 election squarely in line with the turnout levels of 2012 and 2016, but significantly below that of 2020.

CRC calculated the number of voting-age adults who are “likely to vote” on the basis of six factors that have been correlated with turnout behavior in past elections. Research director Dr. George Barna noted that survey respondents are notorious for overstating their likelihood to vote. To compensate for that overly optimistic declaration of voting intent, CRC combined measures of election interest, knowledge, past voting, and intent through an algorithm that has been shown in prior elections to provide a more reliable turnout estimate.

Turnout and People of Faith

One of the most important findings of the research is the depressed voting intent of “people of faith”. The survey defined “people of faith” as either someone who described themselves as “a person of religious faith” or as someone who associated with some recognized religious faith (such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, Islam, etc.). Based on that filter, 79% of Americans qualified as a person of faith. In total, 66% of Americans 18 or older identified as Christian, thus constituting more than four out of every five adults (83%) who view themselves as a person of faith.

Among those classified as a person of faith, only one-half (51%) indicated they are likely to vote. If the survey statistics are projected on the basis of national population estimates, based on a Census- derived U.S. voting-age population of 268 million and an estimated 212 million adults qualifying as a “person of faith,” the 49% who are not likely to vote in November represents about 104 million eligible non-voters in the “people of faith” segment.

Barna pointed out that a deeper dive into the data shows more narrowly defined segments within the “people of faith” group have different expected turnout rates. Among those are people who are defined by their beliefs regarding sin and salvation as born-again Christians (41 million expected to not vote); self-identified Christians who regularly attend church services (32 million not expected to vote); and voting-age adults who regularly attend an evangelical church (14 million of whom are expected to not vote). The research also indicated 46 million adults who attend Protestant churches and 19 million who attend Catholic churches are not likely to vote.

Reasons for Not Voting

The research asked people who indicated they were not likely to vote to explain the reasons for that choice. The most common reason, offered by two-thirds of the non-voters (68%), was a lack of interest in politics and elections. Other common reasons included disliking all of the major candidates (57%), feeling that none of the candidates reflect their most important views (55%), and believing that their one vote will not make a difference (52%). Half of the non-voters said they will avoid voting because the election has become too controversial for their liking (50%).