Unemployment and Solar Activity (Schwabe Cycles)


Unemployment and Solar Cycles - Solar History

Unemployment and Solar Cycles – Solar History

Daily Sunspot Number (bottom) vs. Civil Unemployment Rate (Top). An average periodicity of the 11.4 year cycle is visible.  Note the last solar cycle peaked earlier than the last 5 cycles (Unemployment data: Fred, Economic Research; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;


From Solar History p. 192:

In 2010, Tom McClellan noted that in the postwar period, peaks in the US unemployment rate followed on average about 3 years after the ‘peaks in sunspot activity’. [i] We also see peaks in the unemployment rates at other times. One is an out of pattern peak in 1953 and the other one is again in 1973 (Arab Oil Embargo). Through the delays and ambiguities, the 11.4 years periodicity is notable in the last 5 cycles. What this means is that about 3 years after a peak in sunspot activity, we see a peak in the unemployment rate.” McClellan expected a bottom of the current decline in unemployment around 2012, followed by a rising unemployment rate in 2013 and beyond, reaching a peak about 3 years after whenever the current sunspot cycle sees its peak.

The peak of the current Schwabe cycle (Solar cycle 24) turned out to be in 2014. I expanded on McClellan’s observations with the latest data from 2018. In this cycle, unemployment peaked earlier than usual, but the broad pattern is still clearly visible. [ii]

So, when Trump in 2018 brags of record low unemployment rates – not unmerited- and then Obama counters that the decline in unemployment already began under his watch, a look into solar records might have already hinted to a trend.


[i]Tom McClellan 2010:  The Secret Driver of Unemployment; Tom McClella; Editor, The McClellan Market Report;

[ii]Climate4you; Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC).

Data source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. Last day shown: 30 September 2018. Last diagram update: 4 October 2018.

Categories: Allgemein

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